War with China/Russia

T

The Departed

Guest
With the ever-increasing anger towards China from the US, Australia, UK, India, Taiwan, trade wars, civilian-military training sessions, the enforced labour camps for Muslim's and other religious types, when will the war be? Some say within 10 years, some say sooner.

If you look at the military build-up at the borders, you would think next week, but I would say it will be a technical war, before a physical war. More trade restrictions and embargoes, more technical hacks, limiting of movement, etc.

Thoughts?
 

Scrappy

Legendary Knight
With Beijing Biden in the Whitehouse, China will be on their way to winning already. And if we continue to lose our liberties and freedoms at the rate we currently are, then what real difference will there be if China does rule the world?

It's all very depressing at the moment, and frustrating that so many people either have their heads stuck in the sand, or up someone elses arse, to see what is happening all around them 😧
 

Sarky B’stard

Legendary Knight
Ok, you asked for it. 😬

Imagine a clock. Put Peace at 12 and Total War at 6. At 5 past you have civil unrest, 10 past terrorism and State/non State actors in unattributed agitation and violence. By quarter past you have border incidents and open competition. At 20 past you have Limited War; something like the Falklands where means and geography are confined. By half past you have Total War with all means available. At 31 past you could go Nuclear. On the way back up to noon you have all the mopping up, nation rebuilding and messy stuff as you need to re-assert normality.

Now, overlay on that an ideology that seeks World domination if not actual control, a kind of 21C colonialism. That is, in effect, what the CCP aim to achieve. They take a very long view untroubled by inconveniences like elections. Their biggest impediments are internal power struggles and endemic corruption. The ancient Chinese General said the highest art in warfare is winning without fighting.

Make no mistake the CCP regards itself locked in hostilities short of open warfare to subdue the West without resorting to open warfare if at all possible. It pursues its aims through espionage of all forms from buying information to opinion formers, intellectual property theft, hacking, you name it. Openly it bullies and threatens and seeks to coerce. Its laughable claims on the whole South China Sea deep into the territories of its Southern neighbours typify the approach. It cannot abide Taiwanese economic success and vibrant democracy because of the mirror it represents. Harking back to the Chinese civil war is pure hokum. The next phases are playing out with India, the rival regional power and Australia hitherto valued for its coal and minerals but now being altogether too independent minded. At the back of all of this is traditional enmity to Japan and getting the US back to Hawaii or even San Diego. Right now they fear a shooting war against the US but for how long? Domestic problems have historically led to foreign adventures and gross miscalculations. They need to be contained but not provoked.

Forget the economic pygmy and nuisance Russia. Putin is on the downhill slope and a succession battle beckons. China is the greatest threat to the rest of the globe and Trump their greatest obstacle. Biden? Looks like they have already invested heavily.
 
T

The Departed

Guest
Ok, you asked for it. 😬

Imagine a clock. Put Peace at 12 and Total War at 6. At 5 past you have civil unrest, 10 past terrorism and State/non State actors in unattributed agitation and violence. By quarter past you have border incidents and open competition. At 20 past you have Limited War; something like the Falklands where means and geography are confined. By half past,, you have Total War with all means available. At 31 past you could go Nuclear. On the way back up to noon you have all the mopping up, nation rebuilding and messy stuff as you need to re-assert normality.

Now, overlay on that an ideology that seeks World domination if not actual control, a kind of 21C colonialism. That is, in effect, what the CCP aim to achieve. They take a very long view untroubled by inconveniences like elections. Their biggest impediments are internal power struggles and endemic corruption. The ancient Chinese General said the highest art in warfare is winning without fighting.

Make no mistake the CCP regards itself locked in hostilities short of open warfare to subdue the West without resorting to open warfare if at all possible. It pursues its aims through espionage of all forms from buying information to opinion formers, intellectual property theft, hacking, you name it. Openly it bullies and threatens and seeks to coerce. Its laughable claims on the whole South China Sea deep into the territories of its Southern neighbours typify the approach. It cannot abide Taiwanese economic success and vibrant democracy because of the mirror it represents. Harking back to the Chinese civil war is pure hokum. The next phases are playing out with India, the rival regional power and Australia hitherto valued for its coal and minerals but now being altogether too independent-minded. At the back of all of this is traditional enmity to Japan and getting the US back to Hawaii or even San Diego. Right now they fear a shooting war against the US but for how long? Domestic problems have historically led to foreign adventures and gross miscalculations. They need to be contained but not provoked.

Forget the economic pygmy and nuisance Russia. Putin is on the downhill slope and a succession battle beckons. China is the greatest threat to the rest of the globe and Trump their greatest obstacle. Biden? Looks like they have already invested heavily.

Exceptionally written and well put..

It's most certainly written in the history books that it is due. I believe it was foreseen by Thucydides. I'll find the link.
 

Sarky B’stard

Legendary Knight
The short answer is that there won’t necessarily be a war. People are generally rational and most modern wars are the product of misunderstanding, miscalculation or extreme expedience. The Falklands covered all three. They thought we were losing interest and wouldn’t fight and did it to paper over cracks in their own legitimacy.
China is riding a tiger of domestic expectation. If they don’t deliver continuing prosperity they have big problems. The CCP has huge internal rivalries and a bellicose military wing. My personal concern is a nominally ‘limited’ Taiwan adventure that sucked in Japan and the US and maybe ASEAN and the potential humiliation of China that enraged them to crazy levels.
 
T

The Departed

Guest
It's being mentioned the Philippines are pushing for more US support due to the ever-encroaching China military.

I can't see a full-on war happening, not as you say 31 minutes, more again as you say, a fallout of th soon to be Indian or Tawanese 'conflict'.
 
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