Politics.........

[MartytheMartian]

I couldn't possibly comment @Old Nick as I am far from having any expertise as to how such things operate. One would like to think that those in charge, with advice from the experts and advisers they have to hand will choose the best possible options as to how to navigate the country through tricky economic waters. I don't doubt that, in choosing that 'best possible route' some members of society will take a battering and that, I would guess, is unavoidable. If the decisions are disastrous one would hope that those who made those decisions will pay for them in short order and to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if Truss has been tricked by her own advisors into doing something that will enable them to get rid of her.

 

[Sarky B’stard]

I wouldn't trust the Snivel Service who are on a steady pay and pension roll and were widely politicised under Blair. You get better decision making with lively discussion not soft left group think to avoid hurty words and feelings.

 

[Old Nick]

I totally agree @Sarky B’stard that the actual economics of their plan make sense, but the timing, politics, and underestimating the market reaction is appalling

Getting more money into the economy is good for growth, but not whilst the immediate crisis is inflation - once the energy cap reductions to inflation are seen coming through is the time to free up cash supply not now - as Gov reduce taxes BoE has to increase interest rates to fight inflation - markets laugh and make a fortune out of our volatility

Pandora’s hope is probably all we will have left….

 

[Old Nick]

The thing here @MartytheMartian from what I have seen is that Truss and Kwarteng weren’t listening to their advisors who apparently told them there would be problems but due to Kwarteng/Truss’s arrogance they decided they knew best !

Even to the extent Truss sacked the Chief secretary to the Treasury who was well respected and knew how to deal with the markets on her first day in post

Remember Kwarteng was always the cleverest lad at Eton and Cambridge - not surprising he thinks he knows best..

 

[chas]

If the decisions are disastrous one would hope that those who made those decisions will pay for them in short order

Both Blair and Cameron still have enough to buy many more Enfields than you, so no. They won't.

 

[MartytheMartian]

I would personally put Blair and Cameron up against a wall and shoot them simply because they are complete assholes but they seem to have escaped even much of the blame for their actions let alone punishment. In the here and now though politics seems to have become so toxic and untrustworthy not to mention that everyone from yer average 'Just Stop Oil' twat to Political pundit to the man on the Clapham omnibus seems to know beyond all shadow of doubt in their own expertise how to much better run the country than the government. Damned if I know what is right but what I do know is that our country from the lowest to the highest is so utterly dysfunctional, fragmented and divided that we are almost certainly doomed as a nation without a serious seismic shift in politics.

 

[Old Nick]

Another U Turn from Truss and Kwarteng - They’re going to publish the OBR review of his mini budget by the end of this month instead of the 23rd November

This will layout how all the funding is going to be paid for, and is his opportunity to own up to the really unpopular moves which should be increasing benefits by average wage increases not inflation, and remove the pension triple lock

If he had just done all this last week instead of now we wouldn’t be in the position we are in. And once you lose credibility with the markets it is very hard to get it back - and Truss/Kwarteng have lost all credibility…..

 

[Sarky B’stard]

I don't see it as a U turn. I doubt any serious observer will. It's more politics than economics because we all know how useless most economic forecasting is! They're always wrong. The only question is by how much. Hindsight tells you!

I don't think Wachel Weeves will cut through. She has a switch off voice.

The greatest risk to any incumbent government is persuading voters they want a change. That's not the message governments mean to send!

 

[Old Nick]

On Sunday Truss was adamant that the OBR couldn’t prepare its report ready for publication before the 23rd November and when pushed on it she stated it wouldn’t be finished and they couldn’t release a part completed report - now it can be done by the end of October

So someone was telling porkies

Originally I thought the delay was because the OBR report didn’t support the mini budget, however maybe it does now hence Kwarteng releasing it sooner than stated - and if it does then that’s excellent news because although forecasts can’t be set in stone they do give credibility to the most likely outcomes which then get translated into the mortgage rates we will all be paying

And this is why I am so annoyed with this pair of pillocks creating such a shambles - like many other people I have a fixed rate mortgage that expires next year, I was planning for an increase around £400 in monthly repayments because I know interest rates are increasing - after this week I am now planning for an increase of £800 which is a significant difference and I know I won’t be the only person staring down the barrel of this particular gun..

I’d vote for any fucker that gets my mortgage payments back where it should be!!

 

[DD67]

the mortgage rates we will all be paying

What's a mortgage?


Sorry for that low blow, but it was impossible to resist

On a serious note. An £800pm increase would have most people handing their house keys back to the lender. I'm glad you have a plan, albeit an understandably reluctant one.

 

[Old Nick]

What's a mortgage?


Sorry for that low blow, but it was impossible to resist

On a serious note. An £800pm increase would have most people handing their house keys back to the lender. I'm glad you have a plan, albeit an understandably reluctant one.

I envy all you guys who have your mortgages cleared and paid off - I doff my hat

Some of us are still on the hamster wheel though albeit for not too many more years..

Joking aside I think you are right that many people will be handing their keys back or getting repossessed similar to the last housing crash back in 88 - 91?

I’m lucky I have a decent job and do OK, an awful lot of people don’t though through no fault of their own and I can see the immovable object roaring towards us that a lot of people are going to get splatted against - it won’t be pretty

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Mort gage = death pledge.

 

[Sarky B’stard]

On Sunday Truss was adamant that the OBR couldn’t prepare its report ready for publication before the 23rd November and when pushed on it she stated it wouldn’t be finished and they couldn’t release a part completed report - now it can be done by the end of October

So someone was telling porkies

Originally I thought the delay was because the OBR report didn’t support the mini budget, however maybe it does now hence Kwarteng releasing it sooner than stated - and if it does then that’s excellent news because although forecasts can’t be set in stone they do give credibility to the most likely outcomes which then get translated into the mortgage rates we will all be paying

And this is why I am so annoyed with this pair of pillocks creating such a shambles - like many other people I have a fixed rate mortgage that expires next year, I was planning for an increase around £400 in monthly repayments because I know interest rates are increasing - after this week I am now planning for an increase of £800 which is a significant difference and I know I won’t be the only person staring down the barrel of this particular gun..

I’d vote for any fucker that gets my mortgage payments back where it should be!!

Not necessarily. They just hadn't leant on the OBR hard before telling them their plans.

It's only a government Kitemark invented by Cameron/Osborne anyway. It's paid for by the Treasury when their mates over at the BoE just forecast a recession while we've actually had yet more modest growth.

Not the Messiah just ......!

 

[Sarky B’stard]

I envy all you guys who have your mortgages cleared and paid off - I doff my hat

Some of us are still on the hamster wheel though albeit for not too many more years..

Joking aside I think you are right that many people will be handing their keys back or getting repossessed similar to the last housing crash back in 88 - 91?

I’m lucky I have a decent job and do OK, an awful lot of people don’t though through no fault of their own and I can see the immovable object roaring towards us that a lot of people are going to get splatted against - it won’t be pretty

Somewhat similar. It would have been paid off years ago but for getting my kids on the property ladder and they could now buy and sell me

 

[DD67]

Joking aside I think you are right that many people will be handing their keys back or getting repossessed similar to the last housing crash back in 88 - 91?

I just caught the tail end of that Nick, & therefore missed the disastrous interest rate rises.
However a couple of mates had to hand their keys back to the bank.

When myself & my Mrs at the time bought our first place. We deliberately didn't get sucked into buying something that we could only just afford. In case the interest rates shot up again?
Cos from memory the reason my two mates got stung. Was the fact the banks were offering some crazy deals like 3.5 times their salary & 3.5 times their partners salary.
They took the deal & purchased property they could barely afford the payments on. Then of course the interest rates shot up & the rest is history.

During the property boom several of my older mates constantly banged on about how much their houses were worth. In some instances the houses were increasing by more per year than the guys were earning.
But all of them were reluctant to listen to the idea that the house they would be purchasing next was also rising in value at a similar rate.
Therefore the only way to truly benefit from the increased value of their current place. Was to move to a cheaper part of the country. Or move back in with their parents.

 

[Scrappy]

What's a mortgage?


Sorry for that low blow, but it was impossible to resist

On a serious note. An £800pm increase would have most people handing their house keys back to the lender. I'm glad you have a plan, albeit an understandably reluctant one.

I'm mortgage free also, but only due to some good luck . Having been through the 80s when my monthly mortgage shot up to more than I was earning, I can understand and sympathise with anyone worrying about interest rates and mortgage costs

 

[Scrappy]

I envy all you guys who have your mortgages cleared and paid off - I doff my hat

Some of us are still on the hamster wheel though albeit for not too many more years..

Joking aside I think you are right that many people will be handing their keys back or getting repossessed similar to the last housing crash back in 88 - 91?

I’m lucky I have a decent job and do OK, an awful lot of people don’t though through no fault of their own and I can see the immovable object roaring towards us that a lot of people are going to get splatted against - it won’t be pretty

A financial crisis has been forecast by some for a long time (pre COVID), and I don't think it would matter who was in Downing St, we have been and are being fucked by everyone

 

[Old Nick]

I just caught the tail end of that Nick, & therefore missed the disastrous interest rate rises.
However a couple of mates had to hand their keys back to the bank.

When myself & my Mrs at the time bought our first place. We deliberately didn't get sucked into buying something that we could only just afford. In case the interest rates shot up again?
Cos from memory the reason my two mates got stung. Was the fact the banks were offering some crazy deals like 3.5 times their salary & 3.5 times their partners salary.
They took the deal & purchased property they could barely afford the payments on. Then of course the interest rates shot up & the rest is history.

During the property boom several of my older mates constantly banged on about how much their houses were worth. In some instances the houses were increasing by more per year than the guys were earning.
But all of them were reluctant to listen to the idea that the house they would be purchasing next was also rising in value at a similar rate.
Therefore the only way to truly benefit from the increased value of their current place. Was to move to a cheaper part of the country. Or move back in with their parents.

That is exactly the problem - people mortgaged to the hilt and unable to weather the storm = repossessions - I saw it too back in the day and I have always been wary of huge mortgages because we all have gotten used to cheap money - my current mortgage is locked in at 1.25% next year I am preparing for it to be 7.5% and line my ducks up so I can cover it - I’m probably being a little pessimistic but better to be cautious than lose your home!

 

[Old Nick]

A financial crisis has been forecast by some for a long time (pre COVID), and I don't think it would matter who was in Downing St, we have been and are being fucked by everyone

You’re absolutely right Scrappy the issue I have is it has been brought to a very abrupt head now - no soft landing because a pair of idiots thought they knew better than the experts

 

[DD67]

I am preparing for it to be 7.5%

From a purely selfish perspective I'd be very happy if that had the knock on effect of raising interest rates on savings to 5%+
I'd happily settle for a guaranteed 5%, rather than continue to deal with the rollercoaster that is the stockmarket.
It's been lurching from one disaster to another for years. Admittedly it always eventually recovers but most of the time the lows outweigh the highs.
I know people that lost in excess of £100,000 due to Russia invading Ukraine. It'll take them years to recoup that loss. However a 5% interest rate would no doubt encourage them to cut their losses in exchange for a lot more peace of mind.

Until the banks go belly up!