War with China/Russia

[Sarky B’stard]

But what marker would that be?

And as there is more diversity in Europe than China, they wouldn't get the same impact as if we targeted them using genetic weapons.

I'm only hypothesising of course, but that would seem to be the case to me.

DS

Sweet and sour?

 

[MartytheMartian]

Conventional to me means, as you say, economic war and outright hostilities not to mention the nuclear option if all else fails (which it will). Biological warfare is the one option that even they woiuld see as being far too risky. I know that we all think Nuclear war would be too risky and MAD would apply but that assumes that the little Yellow Peril, Wee Korean Korky and the Russian Bear don't have far too much confidence in their new hypersonic interceptor and strike missiles.

 

[Doc Strange]

Sun Tzu “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Yep, they plan to stay unified while we become more and more divided.

Could end up winning without any shots being fired.

DS

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Conventional to me means, as you say, economic war and outright hostilities not to mention the nuclear option if all else fails (which it will). Biological warfare is the one option that even they woiuld see as being far too risky. I know that we all think Nuclear war would be too risky and MAD would apply but that assumes that the little Yellow Peril, Wee Korean Korky and the Russian Bear don't have far too much confidence in their new hypersonic interceptor and strike missiles.

The thing to remember about nuclear war is that the side that starts it has to target what might come back. The no first strike policy of NATO pretty much assumes all targets are not themselves nuclear delivery systems. It’s why we have subs. They are effectively the undetectable guarantee of such mighty revenge as to deter first use.

So the aggressor has to be mightily certain not merely that they can deliver a knockout blow but that they aren’t signing their own death warrant - hence MAD Mutually Assured Destruction.

None of these hypersonic missiles change that basic equation. Only submarine detection and fail safe missile defence does that and we are still some way from that de-stabilising technology. Meanwhile there is much BS and propaganda….. a bit like people who still argue about dogfighting and airframes rather than the targeting and missile systems that make dogfighting pretty redundant. Why have a duel when you can snipe your opponent from half a mile while he’s taking a dump?

 

[MartytheMartian]

That of course assumes that the nutters at the top are fully aware that their weapons and defences aren't in the 'super' category.

Dogfighting and one on one combat was only ever really useful as propaganda and a morale booster. The reality is that one 'ace' shooting down even eighty enemy fighters over the course of a war lasting years makes little difference. The real useful airborne work was blowing the shit out of the aircraft factories, strafing the enemy bombers and enemy ground troops and sinking enemy ships. Sure fighters are far more attractive as airframes and we all like to picture ourselves in the place of those 'knights of the air' but the reality of aviation in war is that dogfighting is a waste of resources.

I recall reading a book by a former USAF General who served in Vietnam and he talked about the 'madness' of having F4's equipped with missiles that could hit enemy aircraft that the crew couldn't even see with the naked eye and yet were forbidden from using them until they had visually identified the enemy. This took away the distinct advantage that the USAF had over the Vietnamese.

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Bedtime reading!

https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc283785/m2/1/high_res_d/thesis.pdf

 

[Don the Don]

"Dogfighting" BVRAAM Meteor [beyond visual range air to air missile] dogfighting at high speed overstresses the airframes @Sarky B’stard is right

 

[MartytheMartian]

I don't understand @Don the Don I would have thought that, if you have missiles that can, at least in theory, hit a radar target that you can't actually see visually because of how far away it is, and therefore shouldn't need to actually do any more than fly your aircraft while the missiles you have fired do the work how does that stress your airframe? As I understood it in Vietnam, somewhat before my time, the Migs didn't have this sort of capability and would have been at a huge disadvantage as they would be knocked out of the sky without ever getting within sight of an enemy.

As a military tactic I would never advocate for dogfighting of any sort as I see it as a waste of resources. What is the good of knocking one single enemy fighter out of the sky when you can sneak up and destroy a whole squadron of them on their home base with less risk? Yes it's nice and romantic to think about it but, in war, bombers always kill more enemy than fighters do.

 

[Don the Don]

I don't understand @Don the Don I would have thought that, if you have missiles that can, at least in theory, hit a radar target that you can't actually see visually because of how far away it is, and therefore shouldn't need to actually do any more than fly your aircraft while the missiles you have fired do the work how does that stress your airframe? As I understood it in Vietnam, somewhat before my time, the Migs didn't have this sort of capability and would have been at a huge disadvantage as they would be knocked out of the sky without ever getting within sight of an enemy.

As a military tactic I would never advocate for dogfighting of any sort as I see it as a waste of resources. What is the good of knocking one single enemy fighter out of the sky when you can sneak up and destroy a whole squadron of them on their home base with less risk? Yes it's nice and romantic to think about it but, in war, bombers always kill more enemy than fighters do.

Dogfighting with an aircraft that has weapons and other stations [fuel tanks and counter measures], would put undue strain on an airframe, as these get older the frames crack, many many hours are spent inspecting airframes and checking for these cracks that if small can be covered with speed tape, todays composite aircraft are better to some degree but still need inspection, Fighters can tolerate this more but our nation has gone down the road of having fighter bombers as we can't afford to many different types, the Typhoon is now a fighter bomber doing a job it was not built for it was initialy called the Euro fighter, it now carries bombs and missiles and any other bit of kit used for bombing

 

[MartytheMartian]

@Sarky B’stard what do you think of the recent joint exercises by Russia and Belarus and the massing of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine? Also what are your thoughts on the claims from Tobias Ellwood that the Russians may imminently invade the Ukraine (as the US have also warned) and that Putin also has his sights set on invading Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia? Is it all nonsense and sabre rattling and should be ignored completely or is it a real and present danger?

 

[Steve 998cc]

MARTY your as bad as all the doom and gloom merchants of covid. You are old enough to have been alive during the cuban missle crisis which in my memory is the closest this world has ever come to the f**king idiots pressing the button. I was only 6 at the time but remember my parents being very worried. So stop with all your doom and gloom and lets get back to a bike forum, theres f**k all we can do about if the idiots press the button just stick your head between your legs and kiss your arse GOOD BYE

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Putin is a Russian nationalist brought up in the ‘glory days’ of the Soviet Union whose collapse he regards as an affront to Mother Russia and a historic wrong to be righted. He wants to recreate it because it gives Russia strategic depth (they are still scarred by those Germans) and because it deserves to have its neighbours as vassal states. The Russians haven’t forgotten that the Ukrainians welcomed the Germans in 1941 (freeing them from Stalin) before the Germans successfully turned them again!

Putin is also a pragmatist. He know nuclear weapons give him scary bear status but that actually using them is not a good idea. Russia is also an economic pygmy that makes most of its foreign exchange out of oil, gas and timber I.e. raw materials. They don’t make much that anyone wants to buy. Their less sophisticated but cheap weapons are generally better for controlling your own population than squaring up to the West.

So what will he do? He will opportunistically ebb and flow. When he meets resistance he backs off but it’s a tidal game. He will keep ratcheting up the beach whenever he feels capable of flooding the hinterland. Disinformation, subterfuge, little green men are all part of the mix. The danger is in miscalculation. He just doesn’t know quite how good NATO’s guarantees to the Baltic States are. He knows the EU is a toothless talking shop. Eastern Ukraine is probably vulnerable. Just incrementalism…..

He will be well aware that European nations have skimped on Defence but the collapse in the price of oil robbed him of the wherewithal to update his own forces. Right now there is a threat of a pub brawl and he’s just assessing if the opposition will bottle it or embarrass him. His credibility in Russia depends on playing the hard man. He can’t afford to see his Migs getting swatted in any numbers but it may equally serve the interests of his Chinese friends to take eyes off Taiwan, ditto Iranians kicking off in the Gulf. It’s sabre rattling until it isn’t. Exercises are a long favoured way to disguise genuinely hostile plans…..

 

[Old Nick]

Many Eastern Ukrainians hold Russian passports, Putin is extending the Russian ‘sphere of influence’ and will walk his forces into the contested areas around places like Donetsk - and the West will complain a lot but essentially do nothing

I doubt very much we’ll see Russians in Kiev in the near future though

 

[Don the Don]

Right or wrong I like Putin, at least he has a set of balls more so than any of our glorious leaders and I would trust Russians before the French [spit on floor] the slimy turds

 

[Old Nick]

Right or wrong I like Putin, at least he has a set of balls more so than any of our glorious leaders and I would trust Russians before the French [spit on floor] the slimy turds

Putin strikes me as being slimier than the French - which is saying something

Anyone who takes topless selfies on horseback has to be a bit odd

Even Boris hasn’t done that (yet)

 

[Scrappy]

Right or wrong I like Putin, at least he has a set of balls more so than any of our glorious leaders and I would trust Russians before the French [spit on floor] the slimy turds

He might be a bit of a gangster, but he does have a love of his country, and looking from the outside the Russian people seem to now enjoy many freedoms that we currently don't

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Oh I love his homoerotic schtick! I find it a hugely amusing insight into his vanity that projecting his machismo to the home audience is more important than being the object of derision everywhere else.

 

[Don the Don]

Putin strikes me as being slimier than the French - which is saying something

Nothing in this world is slimier than the French, [spit on floor] they don't eat snails for nothing they top up their slime glands, teflon is sandpaper compared to those turds.

 

[Sarky B’stard]

Slimier? See you and raise you. I bid one Humza…..

 

[Doc Strange]

The thing is both pragmatically and deep in his heart Putin wants to be part of the West - the alternative is to be a vassal state of a globally dominant China.

More sensible engagement could have had him on our side.

Moralising and a basic lack of understanding of geo-politics by western leaders has meant he has decided that he's better off being a right p.i.t.a and cosying up to China.

But he could still be negotiated with if there was a decent western leader to do it I believe.

Russia and China are not really friends - never forget that!

DS